SOVIET COMMENTS ON IRAN

CONFIDENTIAL C O N F I D E N T I A L TEHRAN 11260 Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 30 JUN 2006 E.O. 12065: GDS 10/24/85 (LAINGEN, D. BRUCE). OH-P TAGS: IR, UR, PEPR SUBJECT: SOVIET COMMENTS ON IRAN 1. (C - ENTIRE TEXT). 2. AT DINNER RECENTLY SOVIET AMBASSADOR VINOGRADOV SPOKE CANDIDLY OF PGOI. HE HAS SEEN VIRTUALLY ALL KEY LEADERS. AS AMIR-ENTEZAM OBSERVED, "IF YOU CLOSE ONE DOOR, HE COMES IN THE OTHER WITH A PROPOSAL OR SOME DEAL." 3. VINOGRADOV HAS SEEN KHOMEINI FOUR TIMES. HE DESCRIBED THE AYATOLLAH AS A MAN OF GREAT RECTITUDE, A TEACHER DISINCLINED TO LISTEN AND LITTLE VERSED IN POLITICAL REALITIES DOMESTICALLY OR INTERNATIONALLY. TALAGHANI, THE AMBASSADOR SAID, WAS MUCH MORE THE REALIST. VINOGRADOV THOUGHT SKHESHTI WAS THE MOST INTELLIGENT AND POLITICALLY SKILLFUL OF THE RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP. BANI SADR MERITED ONLY SCORN. 4. THE SOVIETS THINK THE PGOI'S MOST DANGEROUS PROBLEM IS THE KURDISH REVOLT, FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE STAGNATED ECONOMY. VINOGRADOV FEELS THE IRANIANS ARE TRYING TO MANAGE THE KURDS WITH FORCE AND THE ECONOMY WITH DREAMY ISLAMIC THEORIES. NEITHER WILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE KURDISH PROBLEM MAY EVENTUALLY BE SETTLED, THERE WAS A REAL PROSPECT OF SHORTAGES, UNEMPLOYMENT AND OTHER SERIOUS ECONOMIC GRIEVANCES LEADING TO DISAFFECTION OF THE LOWER CLASSES FROM KHOMEINI. IT HAS ALREADY STARTED, BUT THE PROCESS COULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE YEARS. HE SUSPECTED THE IRAQIS MIGHT BE INVOLVED IN CAUSING PROBLEMS WITH IRAN'S KURDS AND ARABS, BUT DISMISSED THE THOUGHT THAT THESE USSR MIGHT HAVE INFLUENCE IN BAGHDAD TO RESTRAIN THE IRAQIS. "THEY ARE JUST CRAZY PEOPLE." LAINGEN