(C) TURKISH VIEWS ON KURDISH TROUBLES IN IRAN

CONFIDENTIAL C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 6618 Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 30 JUN 2006 E.O.12065: GDS 9/7/85 (XUX, DENNIS) CR-P TAGS: PFOR, PEPR, TU, IR SUBJ: (c) TURKISH VIEWS ON KURDISH TROUBLES IN IRAN 1. (C) - ENTIRE TEXT. 2. THIS IS AN INFORMATION MESSAGE; NO ACTION REQUIRED. 3. MFA DIRECTOR FOR MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA KOKSAL, HAS TOLD US THAT TURKS HAD HEARD IRANIANS WERE PLANNING TO LAUNCH NEW MILITARY ACTION AGAINST CONCENTRATION OF KURDISH REBELS IN AREA NEAR IRAQI BORDER. WHILE FOR THE MOMENT SITUATION IN KURDISH AREA SEEMS CALM, REPORT SUGGESTED THAT TEST OF STRENGTH BETWEEN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND KURDISH OPPONENTS WAS LIMITED BUT THEY HAD THE IMPRESSION THE KURDS, DESPITE LACK OF POLITICAL UNITY AMONG THE VARIOUS GROUPS, HAD MANAGED TO AMASS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ARMS AND COULD POSE A CONSIDERABLE GUERRILLA THREAT TO THE IRANIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORCES. 4. THE POSSIBILITY OF ARMED ACTION NEAR THE IRAQI BORDER ALSO RAISED THE QUESTION OF IRAQI RESPONSE. SO FAR THE GOT WAS UNCLEAR WHAT GAME IRAQ WAS PLAYING VIS-A-VIS IRAN. ON THE ONE HAND INSTABILITY IN THE REGION WAS AS UNHELPFUL TO IRAQ AS IT WAS TO ANYONE ELSE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE WERE SUFFICIENT POINTS OF FRICTION BETWEEN A REVOLUTIONARY IRAN AND IRAQ THAT THE LATTER MIGHT WELL WISH TO STRENGTHEN ANTI-KHOMEINI FORCES. 5. REGARDING TIES BETWEEN IRANIAN KURDS AND OUTSIDE COUNTRIES, KOKSAL SAID THAT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS, BUT NOT MUCH HARD EVIDENCE, OF FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT WITH THE IRANIAN KURDS. HE ASSUMED THAT OUTSIDE POWERS NOTWITHSTANDING PREDICTABLE DENIALS WOULD FEEL STRONG URGE TO INVOLVE THEMSELVES IN KURDISH ACTIVITIES. REGARDING LINKS BETWEEN TURKISH AND IRANIAN KURDS, KOKSAL EMPHASIZED THAT RECENT PRESS REPORTS THAT TURKISH KURDS WERE PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASSISTANCE WERE TOTAL JOURNALISTIC FABRICATIONS. TO DATE, GOT DID NOT HAVE IMPRESSION THAT THERE WAS ANY SUBSTANTIAL LINKAGE ALTHOUGH, OBVIOUSLY, WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE KURDS IN IRAN WOULD HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON ATTITUDES OF TURKISH KURDS. 6. BECAUSE OF THIS, AS WELL AS IN THE INTEREST OF REGIONAL STABILITY, TURKEY'S OVERRIDING CONCERN WAS THAT IRAN MAINTAIN ITS TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND HAVE A STRONG AND EFFECTIVE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. FOR THIS REASON THE GOT HAD NOTED WITH INTEREST AND APPROVAL CHARGE LAINGEN'S RECENT STATEMENT AFFIRMING US SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. 7. COMMENT: WHILE NEW TO THE JOB, KOKSAL, FORMERLY WITH THE POLICY PLANNING STAF, WAS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OPEN THAN HIS PREDECESSORS IN DISCUSSING KURDISH QUESTION. SPIERS