ASYLUM-SEEKER STAND-OFF SOLVED BUT RUDD UNDER PRESSURE

CONFIDENTIAL,NOFORN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001011 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR P, D, EAP, PRM, EAP/ANP, EAP/MTS NSC FOR LOI PACOM FOR PICCUTA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019 TAGS: PREL, ELAB, PREF, SMIG, AS SUBJECT: ASYLUM-SEEKER STAND-OFF SOLVED BUT RUDD UNDER PRESSURE REF: A. CANBERRA 1006 B. JAKARTA 1895 C. JAKARTA 1793 D. CANBERRA 807 E. CANBERRA 934 F. CANBERRA 255 Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Edgard Kagan, Reasons 1.4 (B and D) 1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The remaining 56 Tamil asylum seekers on board an Australian Customs vessel have agreed to disembark in Indonesia today following a stand-off which lasted over a month (Refs A and C). Like their 22 counterparts who left on Friday, they have been enticed to leave by guarantees offered by Australian officials, ending an increasingly embarassing domestic political problem and irritant with Indonesia. The Opposition is accusing the Rudd government of sending signal of weakness to people smugglers, botching relations with Indonesia and providing a "special deal" for the Tamils. Though not covering itself with glory, the GOA has achieved its aim of preventing the 78 Tamil being processed in Australia. Australia and Indonesia continue to negotiate a major agreement to combat people smuggling. END SUMMARY. STANDOFF ENDS 2. (SBU) On Monday 17, the remaining 56 asylum seekers on board the Oceanic Viking agreed to disembark in Indonesia the following day. They will be taken to the Australian built detention centre in Tanjung Pinang. Like their 22 counterparts that left on Friday, they were persuaded by an offer by Australian officials that those already deemed to be refugees would be resettled between 4-6 weeks, and others found to be refugees would be resettled within 12 weeks. English language classes and help contacting family members were also offered. The government appears to have achieved its aim of preventing the 78 Tamils - who were intercepted in Indonesia's search and rescue zone - being processed in Australia. RUDD DENIES "SPECIAL DEAL" 3. (C/NF) Prime Minister Kevin Rudd insists the 78 were not given a "special deal" and that "the group is being treated in a manner consistent with that afforded to any other asylum seeker in Indonesia." However, the Opposition and some serious commentators ridiculed this, pointing out that other refugees in Indonesia waiting for resettlement have no such guarantees. In the right-leaning newspaper "The Australian", foreign editor Greg Sheridan wrote: "For some bizarre reason Rudd keeps saying the people on the Oceanic Viking have not got a special deal. This simply defies the ordinary meaning of language and common sense. The first principle of good foreign policy is generally to tell the truth." Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull condemned the deal as a capitulation that sends the wrong message to people smugglers. Labor MP Michael Danby told us that Rudd's handling of the issue has raised questions about the Government's competence and reopened concerns within the Labor Party about the PM's tendency to micromanage. RELATIONS WITH INDONESIA STRAINED? 4. (C/NF) Australia and Indonesia continue to negotiate a major agreement to combat people smuggling involving Australia providing more resources. Meanwhile, the Opposition QAustralia providing more resources. Meanwhile, the Opposition is linking the asylum seeker issue to President Yudhoyono's cancellation of this week's planned visit to Australia. One theory is that Rudd's "megaphone diplomacy" on the 78 Tamils caused political pressure for Yudhoyono; that the Indonesian public don't want to be a dumping ground for what they perceive is Australia's problem. 5. (C/NF) COMMENT: Rudd appears to have achieved his main objective: Stopping the Tamils being processed by Australia at the Christmas Island detention center. However, Rudd will CANBERRA 00001011 002 OF 002 likely pay a political price. The duration of the saga undermined the government's border protection credentials with the public while the PM's heavy-handed and increasingly awkward spinmeistering has alienated a media corps that has previously given him the benefit of the doubt on most issues. While our contacts insist that the Australia-Indonesia relationship is strong enough to withstand such irritants, they appear genuinely concerned that this standoff driven largely by Australian domestic politics has cost goodwill with the Indonesians. CLUNE