SPECULATION CONTINUES ON PRESIDENT'S HEALTH AND POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS

SECRET S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002225 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA; E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, OVIP, NI SUBJECT: SPECULATION CONTINUES ON PRESIDENT'S HEALTH AND POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS REF: A. ABUJA 2217 AND PREVIOUS B. LAGOS 0178 (NOTAL) Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty for reasons in sections 1.4 (b) and (d). ------- SUMMARY ------- 1. (C) A long-time Yar'Adua associate of the President, told us December 8 that Yar'Adua confided to him a week before his November 23 departure for Saudi Arabia that he was "very, very ill." Zaria Emirate Council Member Basari Aminu claimed that if Yar'Adua died, Northern political leaders would support allowing Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to finish the term. END SUMMARY. ------------------------- YAR'ADUA "VERY, VERY ILL" ------------------------- 2. (C) Member of the Emirate Council of Zaria, Iyan Zauzzau Alhaji Basari Aminu, an associate of Nigerian President Yar'Adua for over 40 years, told PolCouns and PolOff December 8 that he met with the President at the latter's request one week before Yar'Adua's sudden departure for Saudi Arabia. He said the President told him that he was "very, very ill," and that he could not even stand up to greet him. Aminu said the Nigerian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia told him December 7 that the President was improving, and that they hoped Yar'Adua would leave the intensive care unit that day. -------------------------- RESIGNATION AND SUCCESSION -------------------------- 3. (C) Aminu said that Kaduna State Governor Mohammed Nmadi Sambo told him on December 7 that the Northern governors would not allow Yar'Adua to resign. Aminu said he personally rebuked Sambo since the governors, he said, did not have the right to tell the President what he could or could not do. Aminu noted that even if Yar'Adua's health stabilized, he would be in no position to run for a second term in 2011. 4. (C) If Yar'Adua resigned or died, Aminu remarked that the North would support having Vice President Jonathan conclude the incumbent's term in accordance with the Constitution. He added, however, that a Northerner, likely the person designated as the new Vice President, would run for President in 2011 and govern for the next four years to maintain the "zonal rotation" between Northern and Southern politicians serving eight years each as President. Aminu remarked that the unofficial rotation served the country well in maintaining peace and stability. ---------------------------------- KINGMAKERS AND POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS ---------------------------------- 5. (C) Aminu listed several groups who would pick a new Vice President. The Yar'Adua insiders would favor a current Minister, such as Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, to "keep the same tempo" and protect their interests, he said, while the pro-Obasanjo PDP faction, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), and Northern traditional leaders would be other major players. These latter groups might favor a Northern Governor a step removed from the Yar'Adua clique like Jigawa Governor Sule Lamido. He said Senator Mohammed Makarfi, reportedly Obasanjo's runner-up for the presidential nomination in 2007, had also met with the former President. Aminu stated that the governors of Kaduna and Kwara states are also serious contenders. (COMMENT: Lukman would have numerous obstacles to overcome, including reports that he is Qnumerous obstacles to overcome, including reports that he is ill. END COMMENT.) ------- COMMENT ------- 6. (S) While information in other channels suggests that ABUJA 00002225 002 OF 002 Yar'Adua is again in a dire situation, the perception among the general public -- including political insiders one or two rungs removed from direct knowledge -- is that Yar'Adua's health, based on information from last week, has stabilized. 7. (U) Embassy coordinated this telegram with ConGen Lagos. SANDERS