PLANS FOR INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION OF NIGERIAN ELECTIONS

UNCLASSIFIED,FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000667 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, NI SUBJECT: PLANS FOR INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION OF NIGERIAN ELECTIONS REF: A. ABUJA 582 B. ABUJA 632 ABUJA 00000667 001.2 OF 002 1. (U) Summary: In addition to this Mission's own plans to to field over 80 observers for the forthcoming Nigerian elections (ref. A), a number of multilateral organizations, other embassies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are planning to have observer teams in the field during the April 14 polls for State Governors and Assemblies and those on April 21 for President and the National Assembly. Among multilateral organizations, the EU will likely have the largest team here (over 200), though ECOWAS and the Commonwealth are also expected to have observer delegations in the field. Among Nigeria-based diplomatic missions, only the British High Commission will deploy observers on a scale approaching ours, with about 50. Most other Missions will only have a handful (or less) of their diplomats visiting polling stations in the general vicinity of Abuja; some of the smaller EU Missions may send one or two of their staff to join one of the EU teams. Among international NGOs, NDI and IRI will have the largest presence, with about 50 each, with the NDI delegation being headed by former Secretary Albright. End Summary. Multilateral Organizations -------------------------- 2. (SBU) The European Union plans to send a large delegation to cover the Nigerian elections, with over 200 participants, about 70 of whom are long-term observers already in-country visiting the areas where they will be on election day. According to EU Chief Observer (and MEP) Max Van den Berg and his deputy, Graham Elson, the rest of the observers will arrive the week of April 8, and will join teams in 32 of Nigeria's 36 states. (Note: Like us, they will not send observers to the four Niger Delta states for security reasons. End note.) Both Van den Berg and Elson have observed numerous elections in Africa, and were leaders of the EU delegation which observed the most recent polls here, in 2003. 3. (SBU) According to press reports, ECOWAS also plans to send a large delegation, reportedly in the range of 200, which would be its largest ever observer team; former Gambian President Jawara is expected to be the head of delegation. In a February meeting with the Ambassador, the ECOWAS advance team stressed that any report it prepared would be a strictly internal document to be shared with member governments, and not with other observers or the public. 4. (SBU) The Commonwealth also plans to send a delegation, and, according to both Elson and our British colleagues, originally hoped to send a large team of over 100, provided funding could be found. When funds did not show up, it scaled back the planned delegation dramatically to eleven observers and seven support staff, with former Tanzanian Foreign Minister Joseph Wairoba acting as Chairman. The full team is expected by April 13. Other Diplomatic Missions ------------------------- 5. (SBU) According to contacts at the British High Commission, HMG plans to send observer teams out from both Abuja and Lagos to about half of Nigeria's states (though, like us and the EU, not to the Delta for security reasons). Labour MP (and former Foreign Office Minister of State) Chris Mullin will be coming out to act as chief observer. According to the UK PolCouns, they hope to have over 50 members of their Mission out on the 21st, fewer on the 14th. 6. (SBU) In a recent meeting with resident Political Officers from about 15 Missions, we heard that most only intended to have one or two diplomats (which is about as many as the smaller of them have) visiting polling stations in the vicinity of Abuja. Some of the smaller EU Missions said they intend to attach one or two of their staff to the EU teams. The somewhat larger Japanese Embassy is planning to have ABUJA 00000667 002.2 OF 002 eight to ten staff out observing, though still focused on polling stations within daylight driving distance of Abuja. Non-Governmental Organizations ------------------------------ 7. (SBU) The most notable NGO observer teams will come from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI), both of which plan to send over 50 observers. NDI plans to include former Secretary Madeline Albright, former Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark, former Liberian President Amos Sawyer, former Niger President Mahamane Ousmane and NDI President Kenneth Wollack in its delegation. IRI's delegation includes former US Ambassadors Pierre-Richard Prosper, John Price, Lange Schermerhorn, and Charles Twining, Kenyan MP Raila Odinga and IRI President Lorne Craner. 8. (SBU) While we expect most of the more prominent observers to be based in Abuja, both NDI and IRI have already sent advance teams to all six of Nigeria's geopolitical zones, and will have observers there on both the 14th and 21st. 9. (SBU) Comment: We have continued to play a leading role in encouraging coordination and information sharing among the various groups of international observers. The Ambassador has hosted a series of meetings with resident COMs and the EU team, and other Mission officers have reached out to other diplomatic colleagues, shared information about our own planning and offered to cooperate wherever possible. We have also been holding regular joint meetings with NDI, IRI, IFES and PACT (who are all recipients of USAID/DG funding). End comment. CAMPBELL